Highest temperature in Seoul on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Incheon International Airport on 23 May 2026 at 0% probability across all ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Seoul's late May climate typically sits in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with historical highs around 28–30°C on warm days. The 0% crowd probability indicates the market has settled on a single expected range rather than distributing probability across multiple temperature bands, which is unusual for weather markets where uncertainty ordinarily spreads bets across adjacent outcomes.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows May 23 temperatures have ranged from roughly 15°C to 27°C over recent decades, with average highs near 23°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the date itself, meaning traders must rely on seasonal patterns and any emerging weather forecasts rather than real-time conditions. Late May in Seoul typically marks the transition toward summer, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s, though sustained heat above 30°C remains uncommon before June.

The main catalyst is the release of medium-range weather forecasts in early May 2026, which will clarify whether high-pressure systems or moisture-laden air masses dominate the Korean peninsula that week. Any significant deviation from normal spring conditions—such as an early heat wave or unseasonable cool spell—would shift consensus substantially. The current flat probability distribution suggests traders are waiting for forecast clarity before committing capital, leaving potential value in ranges that historical frequency would otherwise support.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.