Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seoul metropolitan area experiences late spring conditions in late May, with temperatures typically ranging between 20–28°C at Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution mechanism or have not yet engaged with this market. May 25th falls within Seoul's transition toward early summer, when afternoon highs routinely exceed 25°C, making the lower temperature bands statistically more likely than extreme heat.

Historical May data from Incheon shows that temperatures above 30°C occur roughly once every five to seven years during this period, whilst readings below 20°C are rare but possible during cooler spring patterns. The 2023 and 2024 May records indicate typical highs clustering around 24–27°C, providing a baseline for assessing which temperature bands represent fair value. The crowd's complete absence of conviction suggests either thin liquidity or genuine ambiguity about whether specific temperature thresholds will be breached.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly whether high-pressure systems establish over the Korean peninsula or whether cooler maritime air masses persist. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by mid-May that would clarify whether anomalous heat or cooler-than-average conditions are probable. Current consensus appears to underweight the statistical likelihood of moderate temperatures (24–27°C), where historical frequency suggests value may exist for contrarian positions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.