Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish consensus pricing.

August temperatures in Shanghai historically cluster in the 32–36°C range, with extremes occasionally reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The city experiences its most intense heat in mid-August when the East Asian summer monsoon peaks and urban heat island effects amplify readings at the airport station. Over the past decade, only three August 11ths have recorded highs above 35°C; the median sits near 33°C. This historical distribution should anchor expectations around the mid-range brackets, yet the zero probability reading suggests the market may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or simply lacks active participation.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August 2026, as these systems can suppress temperatures significantly. Shanghai's August weather can shift rapidly; a passing typhoon or unusual atmospheric pattern could depress highs into the 28–30°C range, whilst a sustained high-pressure system could push readings toward 37°C or beyond. Real-time weather model consensus from late July and early August will be the primary catalyst for repricing. The resolution methodology—specifically reliance on the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—means traders should verify which measurement protocol Weather Underground applies to Pudong station data.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.