Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's peak temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. August in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, which creates a timing constraint: traders must account for the fact that Shanghai's hottest hours usually occur in the afternoon, after the resolution cutoff.

Historical August temperatures at Pudong show considerable year-to-year variation. The past decade has recorded extremes ranging from 31°C to 37°C on random dates throughout the month, with no clear pattern suggesting August 13 is systematically hotter or cooler than surrounding dates. The 0% probability reading likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine certainty about temperature outcomes. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts in early August 2026, particularly any alerts for sustained high-pressure systems or tropical cyclone activity that could suppress temperatures. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months may influence regional atmospheric patterns, though seasonal forecasting at this range remains inherently uncertain.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.