Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s midday-to-afternoon heat on 8 August is the key variable, with the market resolving off the **highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations** for Pudong rather than any summary high. The crowd is pricing **0% YES**, which makes the “favourite” effectively the under one of the listed temperature bands, and the value question is whether a normal August warm-up pushes the day into a higher bucket than consensus expects. Wunderground’s Shanghai history page already shows 8/8/2026 at a listed high of **93°F** and 8/7/2026 at **95°F**, which is about **34°C** and **35°C** respectively, so the recent run-up has been hot enough to keep upper ranges live even before the full day is locked in.[1]

For framing, Shanghai in August is typically hot, with averages around **32–33°C** for daytime highs and frequent humidity, which means outcomes above the low-30s are not unusual in this part of the season.[2][6][11] Recent comparable August readings in Shanghai have also reached the mid-30s °C, including years with highs around **35°C** and even higher isolated spikes, so a contrarian case against a zero-priced YES is that the location can overshoot the broad climatological average when heat and moisture align.[6][11][16] That said, the current market is still leaning on the absence of a guaranteed extreme, so the consensus appears anchored to a more ordinary hot-day outcome rather than a sharp break into the highest band.

The main catalysts for traders are the live station observations through the day, because this market depends on the **observed maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station** and not a forecast headline or summary panel.[9] The cleanest dependencies are the timing of the warmest late-morning to mid-afternoon readings, any cloud cover or showers that suppress the peak, and whether the station’s Daily Observations table updates cleanly before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Forecast-style pages already point to Shanghai remaining warm around this period, but those are secondary here; the decisive number is the station record itself on Wunderground.[14][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

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