Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is the reference point, and the market settles on the highest Celsius reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for 9 August, not the headline day-high figure. With the crowd at **0% YES**, the market is effectively pricing in an extremely low chance of any reading that lands in the listed YES band, so the favourite is firmly the **NO / lower-temperature** side and any upside case is a contrarian one.

The historical and forecast context does not support an extreme-heat outcome. Shanghai’s August norms are hot, but not enough to make a very high daily maximum routine: long-run guides put average daytime highs around **31°C** and multiple 2026 forecasts cluster the day near the high 20s to mid-30s Celsius, with rain and cloud more prominent than clear-sky heat.[16][6][1][14] More specifically, AccuWeather’s 9 August forecast points to **85°F / about 29°C** with rain and heavy cloud, while Time and Date shows **84°F / 78°F** and overcast; that combination makes the upper tail look limited unless the airport gets a brief pre-rain spike.[5][7] On that reading, consensus sits around a warm but rain-checked day, and the value, if any, lies in the possibility that observations at the airport briefly run hotter than the forecast highs before precipitation dominates.

Traders should watch any late shifts in the rain band, thunderstorm timing, and wind direction, because the highest observation can come early if sunshine breaks through before heavier rain arrives. Multiple forecasts already flag high precipitation odds and heavy rain on 9 August, which generally caps intraday upside, though it can also create short-lived convective warmth before the front passes.[5][7][13][14] The key dependency is the *observed* airport temperature profile across the day, since settlement uses the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than the summary high; if conditions trend cooler or rain arrives earlier, the market’s current zero-per-cent YES pricing still looks consistent with the base case.[5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.