Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s July heat is a brutal, predictable fixture, with the city routinely hitting highs above 35°C during mid-summer. The market for 21 July 2026 currently shows a 0% implied probability for the “YES” outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the offered range. Yet historical data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport shows July 21 has frequently recorded peaks of 34–38°C, making a zero-probability stance appear overly dismissive of typical seasonal extremes [1][2].

In comparable years, 34°C has been the front-runner with 46% market confidence, while 33°C trails at 39%, indicating traders are pricing a narrow band just below the historical average [1]. The consensus leans toward 34°C as the favourite, but the 0% YES probability creates a contrarian angle: if the range includes 34°C or higher, the market may be mispricing the likelihood of a standard hot day. Value could sit in betting against the crowd’s extreme caution, especially given the 60% precipitation probability that may suppress temperatures only slightly, not enough to avoid the 34°C threshold [3].

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history for Shanghai Pudong, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in local weather forecasts from Meteoblue, which currently predicts a maximum of 38°C [2]. No major announcements or schedules are expected to alter the outcome, but real-time updates on cloud cover and thunderstorm activity could influence the final reading. The key dependency is whether the day remains dry enough to allow temperatures to climb into the 34–38°C range, a scenario that has occurred repeatedly in past July 21s.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.