Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Market context

Shanghai’s noon-to-afternoon high at Pudong is the event to watch, and the market is pricing it as a near-lock **underdog** for a hotter outcome at **0% YES**. That leaves consensus firmly on the cooler side of the distribution, with any meaningful upside tied to a warm, dry spell breaking through the usual early-summer humidity and cloud cover.

Historically, June at Shanghai Pudong International Airport is already in the warm season, with average daily highs rising from about 77°F to 83°F and rare excursions above 92°F; airport climate summaries also note that summer highs regularly exceed 30°C and can reach 35°C in sunny conditions.[1][2][6] That frames the favourite as the lower temperature ranges, but it also leaves a contrarian angle: a properly sunny, stagnant day can still push the airport well above seasonal norms. AccuWeather’s same-day forecast has pointed to cloudy, humid conditions with morning showers and an overcast start, which tends to cap the ceiling versus a clear-sky heat build.[3]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s actual cloud cover, rainfall timing, and whether the marine-influenced humidity suppresses daytime heating at the airport station. The resolution source is the Wunderground daily history page for ZSPD, so the market will hinge on the single highest observed reading before the settlement cut-off rather than the mean or evening temperature.[4] Recent forecast language has leaned wet and overcast, which supports the current **favourite** on lower bands and makes the higher temperature buckets the value spot only if skies clear earlier than expected.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.