Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

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Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing across the full distribution of possible highs.

Late May in Shanghai sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 28–32°C. Over the past decade, 25 May highs have clustered around 29–31°C, though anomalies do occur; the city experienced a 35°C day on 25 May in 2013 and a cooler 24°C reading in 2010. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders have converged on a narrow band—most likely the 30–32°C range—leaving adjacent brackets potentially underpriced if atmospheric conditions deviate from the seasonal norm.

Traders should monitor late-May weather patterns through early 2026, particularly the strength of any pre-monsoon systems or high-pressure ridges that could push temperatures above 32°C. Shanghai's urban heat island effect and proximity to the East China Sea create localised variability; coastal wind patterns in the days preceding 25 May will be material to final outcomes. Wunderground's historical data feed remains the sole arbiter, so any station maintenance or sensor recalibration at Pudong would be worth tracking through aviation weather bulletins.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.