Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport heat on 1 August is a straightforward **summer-high temperature** bet, and the market is priced as if an extreme reading is very unlikely, with the crowd at **0% YES**. In handicapper terms, the favourite is a sub-39°C outcome: August in Shenzhen is typically hot, but not usually record-breaking, with average highs around 32°C to 32.2°C and reported August record highs in the high 30s Celsius, including 38°C on some historical datasets and 40°C as the absolute monthly record in others.[4][7][15][16]

The historical frame points to a **hot but bounded** profile rather than a runaway upside case. Comparable August climate data place Shenzhen’s daily highs mostly around 87°F to 90°F, with rare excursions above 93°F, while one source puts the record August high at 103°F in 2017 and another shows an average Aug 1 high near 90.5°F.[1][3][6] That leaves the market’s consensus tilted strongly towards the lower temperature bands; the value debate is whether the airport station can briefly overperform the city-wide norm if sunshine dominates and rain holds off, because humidity and convective showers are common in August.[1][4][15]

The main catalysts are the day’s synoptic setup and whether rainfall or typhoon-linked cloud cover suppresses the afternoon peak. Shenzhen’s August climatology is wet, with rainfall on roughly half the days in some datasets, and regional guides flag a higher typhoon risk in late summer; either factor would cap the high, while a dry, sunny spell would support a contrarian push towards the top of the distribution.[1][4][16][19] Traders should also watch the airport station’s own history page on Wunderground for the final recorded daily maximum, since the settlement source is the Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station rather than a city average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.