Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Shenzhen's highest temperature will be recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station and measured against defined ranges in Celsius. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies worth monitoring.

Shenzhen's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs clustering between 32–35°C during mid-August, with extreme readings above 36°C occurring in roughly one year per decade. The 0% implied probability across all ranges signals the market has yet to calibrate properly to seasonal norms. Comparable August 11th observations from 2015–2024 show no readings below 30°C and only two instances exceeding 36°C, establishing a tight distribution around the 33–35°C band.

Traders should monitor tropical weather systems developing across the South China Sea in early August, as typhoon proximity can suppress temperatures by 2–4°C through cloud cover and precipitation. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by late July; any alerts regarding low-pressure systems would shift probability away from the hotter ranges. Urban heat island effects at the airport station have intensified marginally over the decade, creating a slight upward drift in baseline readings. Current market pricing at zero across the board presents an arbitrage opportunity once forecasting clarity emerges in the final fortnight before settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.