Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome occurring, which reflects either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or a data-entry anomaly rather than genuine market conviction. Shenzhen's August climate is characterised by sustained heat and humidity; daily highs typically range between 32–34°C during mid-August, with occasional spikes toward 35°C during heat waves. The resolution mechanism specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the binding source, which occasionally records minutely-sampled data that can differ from the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters for markets settling on precise temperature ranges.

Historical August temperatures at Bao'an show consistent clustering in the 32–34°C band over the past decade, with excursions above 35°C occurring roughly once every two to three years during particularly intense tropical pressure systems. The 0% implied probability suggests traders may be anchored to a single outcome or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to reflect genuine uncertainty. Given Shenzhen's predictable summer thermal regime and the absence of anomalous atmospheric patterns forecast for August 2026, the consensus likely favours the modal 32–34°C range, leaving potential value in either the 35°C-plus outcomes (if a late-summer monsoon surge materialises) or the sub-32°C tail (if an unusual cool spell develops).

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.