Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome occurring, which reflects either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Shenzhen's August climate is characterised by intense summer heat and high humidity, with daily maxima typically ranging between 32–35°C, though occasional spikes above 36°C do occur during heat waves.

Historical August data from Shenzhen shows consistent patterns: the airport station regularly records temperatures in the 33–34°C range during mid-month, with extremes reaching 37–38°C during particularly severe heat events. The 0% implied probability suggests the market has settled on a specific temperature band as near-certain, though without visibility into which range commands consensus, traders should examine comparable years—particularly 2023 and 2024 August readings—to identify whether the favourite is genuinely overdetermined or whether contrarian value exists in secondary outcomes.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from late July onwards, as the East Asian summer monsoon patterns and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea could materially shift temperature trajectories. The China Meteorological Administration typically releases extended outlooks by early August; these forecasts, combined with real-time atmospheric pressure systems and sea-surface temperatures in the Taiwan Strait, will provide the most actionable signals for reassessing the current consensus before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.