Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the peak daily temperature recorded on 6 July 2026 at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, a critical metric for a market where the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome for any temperature above the lowest bracket. Historical data frames this sharply: July is Shenzhen’s hottest month, with average highs near 89°F (31.7°C) and peak daily temperatures in recent years routinely hitting 32°C or higher[4][5]. Polymarket traders on 5 July saw the market lock in 32°C at 100% probability, confirming the consensus that temperatures will not dip below 30°C[2]. With the frontrunner today at 32°C (31%) and 31°C (29%), the value spot likely sits contrarian in the 33°C range, which saw significant volume on 1 July[1][3].

Traders must watch for the official release of Wunderground’s daily high for 6 July, the definitive resolution source, and monitor any sudden shifts in local weather patterns such as cloud cover or rainfall that could suppress peak temperatures[1]. Recent forecasts indicate warm conditions with a maximum of 36°C expected later in the week, suggesting the potential for extreme heat if atmospheric conditions remain stable[7]. The key dependency is the timing of the Wunderground update, which will settle the market before the 12:00 UTC deadline on 6 July 2026. Given the 0% crowd-implied probability for the lowest bracket, the market is heavily skewed toward the 30–32°C range, leaving the 33°C+ outcomes as the primary underdog value for those betting against the consensus[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.