Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

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Market context

The Singapore Changi Airport weather station will record a daily maximum temperature on 25 May 2026, with settlement determined by the highest reading across all times that day. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific temperature range, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or a technical issue with market calibration. May sits within Singapore's southwest monsoon season, when afternoon highs typically cluster between 31–33°C, though occasional spikes above 34°C occur during drier interludes.

Historical May data from Changi shows the station has recorded extremes ranging from 28.9°C to 35.8°C over the past three decades. The 35°C+ outcomes cluster around mid-to-late May during years when high-pressure systems dominate the region, whilst cooler readings (below 31°C) coincide with afternoon thunderstorms that suppress afternoon peaks. The consensus expectation—implied by the zero probability assigned—appears to be that traders lack sufficient conviction to commit capital, despite May's reliable temperature patterns being well-documented in meteorological records.

Traders should monitor the Indian Ocean Dipole and equatorial Pacific conditions through April and early May 2026, as these drive monsoon intensity and cloud cover across the region. The UK Met Office and Singapore's Meteorological Service typically issue seasonal outlooks by late April that flag whether May will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Any sustained high-pressure system anchoring over Southeast Asia in the week preceding 25 May would favour higher temperature ranges, whilst an active monsoon trough would suppress afternoon maxima. Current market pricing leaves substantial value in temperature ranges above 33°C if atmospheric conditions align with historical warm-May patterns.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.