Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Singapore Changi Airport on 26 May 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Weather Underground's historical records. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which temperature band will be offered at settlement.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima year-round, with May typically recording highs between 32–34°C. Historical data from Changi Airport shows May temperatures rarely deviate far from this narrow band; extremes above 35°C or below 31°C occur infrequently. The 0% implied probability across all ranges suggests traders are waiting for explicit outcome brackets to be published before committing capital, rather than indicating genuine uncertainty about whether the station will record *some* temperature on that date.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 26 May, giving Weather Underground's historical database a narrow window to finalise readings before resolution. Traders should monitor whether the market operator publishes specific temperature ranges (e.g., 32–33°C, 33–34°C) in advance, as this will determine whether the current zero-probability state reflects genuine indifference or simply incomplete market design. Seasonal monsoon patterns and any anomalous weather systems developing in May 2026 could shift expectations, but the underlying climatology leaves little room for surprise.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.