Highest temperature in Taipei on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the likelihood that Taipei's highest temperature on 18 August 2026 will fall within a specific range, measured at Songshan Airport Station and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline.

Taipei's August temperatures are remarkably consistent. Historical data shows daily highs cluster between 32–36°C during mid-August, with extremes rarely breaching 38°C or dropping below 31°C. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces little variance year-to-year at this time; the 2025 August average tracked within 0.3°C of the ten-year mean. This stability typically anchors temperature predictions, yet the zero probability reading suggests traders may be uncertain about which specific range this market covers, or the range itself sits outside historical norms.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts issued by Taiwan's Central Weather Administration in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026, as typhoons can suppress temperatures by 2–4°C or occasionally elevate them through atmospheric pressure effects. Urban heat island effects at Songshan, which sits within Taipei's developed core, tend to amplify readings relative to surrounding areas. The resolution methodology—relying on Weather Underground's Daily Observations rather than the summary high-low table—introduces a technical dependency; discrepancies between the two sources have occasionally occurred during equipment maintenance or data processing delays. Traders should verify the specific temperature range attached to this market before positioning, as the zero probability likely reflects ambiguity about the threshold rather than meteorological certainty.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on August 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.