Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Taipei Songshan Airport on 26 May 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Weather Underground's historical data once the day concludes. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to this outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range of possible outcomes.

Taipei's late May climate sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period. The city experiences occasional heat spikes driven by southwesterly flows ahead of the monsoon transition, though sustained extreme heat above 35°C remains uncommon at this stage of the year. Previous May records show variability tied to whether subtropical high-pressure systems have fully established themselves; the 0% reading on at least one temperature bracket suggests the market may be overweighting a narrow consensus rather than reflecting genuine meteorological uncertainty.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models released in early May 2026, particularly any signals from the Asian summer monsoon onset timing and strength. The Taiwan Central Weather Administration typically issues extended outlooks by mid-month that can shift expectations around heat intensity. Additionally, any unusual upper-air patterns or tropical system activity in late April could alter atmospheric conditions heading into late May, though such developments remain inherently difficult to predict six months in advance. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 26 May, giving traders access to morning satellite and model guidance before final resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.