Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s late-summer heat is the key frame here: the market is effectively a bet on whether Haneda Airport logs the day’s top reading above the low-30s Celsius, with the crowd’s **0% YES** implying consensus that this will land in a lower band. August is Tokyo’s hottest month on long-run climate averages, with typical highs around **31°C** and historical August records well into the **mid-30s** or higher, so a zero-priced outcome looks more like an underdog call on a relatively restrained day than a view that heat is impossible.[1][2][3]

On comparable August days, Tokyo often reaches the **upper 20s to low 30s Celsius**, while exceptional hot spells can push to **34–39°C** in the city’s history, meaning the upside tail is real even if the median case is modest.[2][3][8] For handicap purposes, that leaves the favourite with the market’s implied “not that hot” consensus, while the value angle sits with any trader who thinks daytime sun, weak onshore wind, or a stalled warm airmass could nudge the Haneda high into a higher range than the current price suggests.[4][6][9]

The main catalysts are operational and meteorological rather than scheduled: the settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, so traders should watch the actual afternoon peak, not the morning start or overnight low.[10] Forecasts around this date point to typical August highs in the **82°–90°F** range, which is roughly **28–32°C**, but the distribution can still overshoot when humidity and sunshine line up, especially if showers stay away until later in the day.[6][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.