Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the peak temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 13 August 2026 at 0% probability across all ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. August in Tokyo typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Haneda Airport Station, prioritising that source over summary figures—a distinction that matters when intraday readings diverge from reported highs.

Historical August temperatures at Haneda show considerable year-to-year variation. The past decade has recorded extremes ranging from 31°C to 37°C on mid-August dates. The 2023 heat wave pushed Tokyo above 35°C on multiple days in early August, whilst cooler years have stayed closer to 32°C. Current crowd pricing at zero across all ranges suggests either a data-entry error or that traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. This creates potential value if consensus shifts once summer weather patterns become more apparent in mid-2026.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks for temperature ranges. Pacific high-pressure systems and typhoon activity in early August significantly influence whether Tokyo experiences typical summer heat or anomalously cool conditions. Any major atmospheric pattern announcements in the weeks preceding the settlement date will likely shift market positioning away from the current flat pricing.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.