Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the peak temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 17 August 2026 at 0% probability across all ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. August temperatures at Haneda typically peak between 32–36°C, with the station's historical August average high around 32.5°C and extremes occasionally reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability indicates traders are either heavily concentrated in a single narrow band or the market has attracted minimal participation, making current pricing unreliable as a guide to genuine consensus.

Tokyo's summer weather depends heavily on Pacific high-pressure systems and the timing of the East Asian monsoon trough. Mid-August typically falls within the peak heat season, though the specific day's temperature hinges on whether a typhoon approaches, cloud cover develops, or a particularly intense ridge of high pressure dominates. The Japan Meteorological Agency issues forecasts roughly ten days ahead; traders should monitor their late-August outlook from around 7 August onwards, as this window often clarifies whether unusual heat or cooler, wetter conditions will prevail. Recent summers (2023–2024) have seen multiple days exceeding 35°C in Tokyo, establishing a baseline for what constitutes normal versus exceptional August heat.

The resolution methodology—drawing from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—creates a technical dependency worth noting. Discrepancies between intraday observation records and daily summaries occasionally occur; traders should verify Haneda's specific station data format on Wunderground before settlement approaches to avoid disputes over which reading governs the outcome.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.