Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s peak temperature on 2 August is being priced as a near-certainty on the **underdog** side of a much hotter outcome, with the crowd-implied probability at **0% YES** for the market’s target range. That leaves the current consensus squarely with a modest daytime maximum rather than any extreme heat spike, and the value question is whether traders are underestimating a one-off jump driven by sun, suppressed cloud cover, or an early-afternoon heat burst.

Historically, August in Tokyo sits in the low-30s Celsius rather than the mid-30s for most days, with forecast and climate references clustering around average highs near **31°C to 31.1°C** and monthly highs commonly ranging from the low-80s to around **90°F**. Current market pricing elsewhere on the same event has clustered around **33–34°C** as the main band, which suggests the consensus is not expecting a record or even a severe outlier, but rather a fairly standard hot summer afternoon. That makes the favourite the middle temperature range, while the contrarian angle is that airport readings can lag or soften compared with central Tokyo if sea-breeze influence or cloud build-up arrives earlier than expected.

The key catalysts are the day’s actual weather evolution rather than any scheduled announcement: cloud cover, humidity, rainfall timing, and whether convection develops before the early-afternoon peak. Forecast services for Tokyo currently point to sustained summer heat, with daily highs in early August generally around **82° to 90°F** and an average August high near **86°F**, which supports the base case for a warm but not extreme reading. The trader focus is therefore on whether conditions stay clear long enough to push the Haneda station reading to the top of the day’s range, or whether afternoon showers cap the high closer to the lower-30s Celsius band.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.