Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s daytime high on 5 August is the key event here, with the market now pricing **0% YES**, so the crowd is effectively treating the listed outcome as a tail result rather than a live contender. The current consensus is still anchored around the high-20s to low-30s Celsius band: Polymarket’s curve shows **29°C** and **30°C** as the front-runners, with **31°C** also close behind, which is consistent with Tokyo’s normal August heat profile. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Tokyo has daily highs broadly between **82°F and 90°F** (about **28°C to 32°C**), while Japan Meteorological Agency daily data for early August already shows Tokyo-area maxima running in the mid-30s on the mainland and a hot baseline for the prefecture overall.[4][1][2]

For a handicapper, the favourite remains a warm-but-not-extreme outcome, while the underdog case is that a stronger heat ridge pushes the airport reading into the low- to mid-30s. That makes the value discussion less about whether Tokyo is hot — it is — and more about whether cloud cover, sea breeze, or showers clip the peak by early afternoon. August in Tokyo is typically humid and oppressive, with average highs around **31°C** and only small day-to-day variation, which supports a clustered settlement band rather than a wide dispersion.[8][11] Historical August extremes in Tokyo can still reach well above 35°C, so contrarian positions are mainly a bet on a cooler-than-modelled day rather than on the city escaping heat altogether.[13][15]

Traders should watch the morning-to-noon forecast updates, especially any change in the strength or position of the Pacific High, plus rainfall or cloud cover around Haneda that could suppress the daily maximum. The settlement window ends at **12:00 UTC**, which is **21:00 JST**, so most of the day’s maximum temperature will already be in the book by then, but late-afternoon heating can still matter if the site’s “all times on this day” reading captures a later peak. Reuters reported another severe Japan heatwave in 2025, and the broader pattern into summer 2026 has been for above-normal warmth, which leaves the market consensus tilted towards higher temperatures even if the exact peak remains uncertain.[13][15][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.