Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s daytime high on 8 August is trading like a deep favourite for the upper temperature bands, but the market’s **0% YES** implied probability on the exact threshold being asked here looks too dismissive given the live forecast. The more relevant read is not whether Tokyo gets hot — it does — but whether Haneda’s *Daily Observations* peak clears into the next Celsius bucket before the settlement cut-off. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Tokyo highs running up to **94°F** this week, while current Wunderground conditions already show **92°F** at 9:39 JST with a forecasted rise into the low 90s Fahrenheit; that is squarely in range for a result above the low-30s Celsius mark.[1][4]

The historical frame is straightforward: Tokyo in August is usually hot, humid, and biased towards afternoon warmth, with long-run August averages around **31°C** for daytime highs and several sources describing highs commonly in the **30°C to 35°C** band.[12][16][18] WeatherSpark also notes 8 August is one of the muggiest points of the year in Tokyo, which matters because humidity does not change the settlement number directly, but it often accompanies the kind of stagnant air mass that supports a late-day high.[13] That leaves the consensus leaning to the over side of the market’s practical range, while the contrarian angle is a cap from cloud cover, coastal breeze, or a rain interruption around the afternoon peak.

For traders, the key catalyst is the intraday evolution at Tokyo Haneda rather than any broad city forecast. The market settles off the **highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table**, so the decisive print is the station observation closest to the daily peak, not the summary high/low banner.[4] With the relevant window still open through 12:00 UTC, the value spot is any setup where Tokyo briefly spikes into the mid-30s Celsius but fails to hold there long enough to register in the station observations; if that happens, the underdog case is a lower bucket despite the headline heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.