Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak daily temperature, a single metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the “YES” outcome, suggesting the consensus believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range. This stark positioning reflects a market that has largely priced in a moderate July day, despite Tokyo’s reputation for extreme summer heat.

Historically, July in Tokyo Haneda sees daily highs between 24°C and 35°C, with the hot season running from late June to mid-September. While Japan’s all-time record reached 41.2°C in Tamba City in 2025, Haneda typically remains cooler due to its coastal location and urban airflow. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate highs of 24°C to 35°C, aligning with the 0% implied probability and reinforcing the view that a record-breaking spike is unlikely at this station.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat advisories and any sudden shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, which can suppress peak temperatures. A recent Reuters report confirmed Japan’s 2025 record of 41.2°C, but such extremes are rare in Haneda. The value spot may lie in contrarian positions if a heat dome develops, though the consensus remains firmly on the underdog side, betting against an outlier event.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.