Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces a mid-summer heatwave on 16 July 2026, with the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station expected to record its peak daily temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to the "YES" outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite forecast models predicting hot and humid conditions with temperatures reaching 93°F (approximately 34°C) and potential thunderstorms later in the day[2].

Historical mid-July data for Haneda typically sees highs between 32°C and 35°C, making the current 0% implied probability on the "YES" side a stark contrarian signal against the consensus favouring 33°C at 40% and 34°C at 28%[1]. This discrepancy suggests the market may be mispricing the likelihood of a record-breaking heat spike or a specific range threshold, offering a potential value spot for traders who believe the actual temperature will align closer to the 34°C forecast rather than the lower consensus favourite.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the day progresses to confirm if the 25% chance of early rain and thunderstorms disrupts the heat accumulation[2]. Any sudden shifts in local weather patterns or official announcements regarding heat advisories could act as immediate catalysts, forcing the crowd-implied probability to adjust rapidly from its current 0% baseline if the temperature breaches the expected range.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.