Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s mid-July heat is set to peak at the Haneda Airport station on 17 July 2026, with the market now locking in 32°C as the near-certain outcome. The crowd-implied probability for any deviation sits at 0% YES for lower ranges, reflecting a consensus that temperatures will breach the 31°C threshold decisively. Historical mid-July records at Haneda show frequent highs between 30°C and 34°C, with 32°C appearing in 2019 and 2023, framing the current pricing as statistically grounded rather than speculative [1].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily 9 AM UTC forecast for the Kanto region, which often adjusts overnight based on Pacific high-pressure strength. A recent JMA bulletin noted a strengthening subtropical ridge pushing warmer air inland, increasing the likelihood of sustained highs above 31°C through the settlement window [1]. Contrarian value may exist only if an unexpected marine layer develops, but current satellite data shows clear skies and minimal cloud cover, reinforcing the 32°C favourite. The underdog—25°C or below—remains a 0% outlier with no credible meteorological support at this stage.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.