Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July 4 weather is a single-day snapshot where the consensus currently pins the highest temperature at 27°C, yet the crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome on hitting 28°C or higher sits at 0%. Historical patterns from the Kanto region show that while seasonal climatology often delivers 28–30°C highs in July, recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs indicate a moderating high-pressure pattern that supports maximums near 26–27°C, aligning with the market’s frontrunner [1]. The 26°C outcome holds a 26% share, suggesting the market views a slight dip from the seasonal average as the most probable scenario, framing the 0% odds for higher temperatures as a rational contrarian stance rather than an obvious underdog [1].

Traders should monitor the real-time updates from Wunderground for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, as the resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 4 July 2026 [1]. The immediate catalyst is the evolving insolation levels against the seasonal baseline, where reduced sunlight could suppress temperatures below the typical 28°C threshold, a factor already weighing on the odds [2]. Recent heatwave warnings from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which flagged extreme conditions leading to Japan’s record 41.2°C in late July 2025, highlight the volatility of the season, yet current ensemble guidance points to a cooling trend for this specific date [7]. Value may sit in the 26°C range if the moderating pattern persists, offering a spot where the consensus is slightly too optimistic on the 27°C frontrunner [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.