Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July 7, 2026, high temperature hinges on whether lingering tsuyu frontal activity or a stalled low-pressure system suppresses the day’s peak below 27°C, pushing outcomes toward the 25°C range rather than the hotter brackets. The crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sits at 0%, reflecting a consensus that extreme heat is unlikely, yet historical patterns suggest value may lie in contrarian bets on the 25–27°C band where tsuyu effects often linger.

Historically, Haneda’s July highs average 29.0°C, with daily normals ranging from 28–33°C during the plum rainy season, but tsuyu fronts have repeatedly capped maximums near 27°C in recent years, as seen in 2023 and 2024 when stalled lows held temperatures below expectations [2][3]. This pattern frames the current 0% probability as potentially overconfident, since tsuyu variability often creates underpriced value in the 25–27°C range where consensus overlooks the dampening effect of frontal systems.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 3-day forecast issued 6 July, which notes a 20% precipitation probability for 12–18 hours on 7 July, a key dependency that could sustain tsuyu conditions and suppress highs [3]. Additionally, JAL’s flight advisories for 7 July warn of potential delays due to bad weather, a recent signal that atmospheric instability may persist and keep temperatures below the 27°C threshold [6]. These catalysts suggest the 0% probability may not fully account for tsuyu’s capacity to hold highs in the cooler brackets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.