Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the official daily high temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the 23°C or below outcome, reflecting a consensus that such a cool reading is virtually impossible during Tokyo’s peak summer heat. Historical July highs at Haneda typically range between 28°C and 32°C, with the Met Office forecasting a maximum of 31°C for the coming week[4]. Recent data from July 7 showed a high of 24°C, an anomaly likely tied to transient cloud cover rather than a seasonal shift[3]. In multi-band markets like this, the 29°C outcome carries the highest single-outcome probability at 31.5%, making it the favourite despite not commanding majority support[2].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s short-range ensemble forecasts, which currently cluster around 29–30°C amid lingering influence from the Pacific High[1]. Any sudden shift in these models—particularly if they dip below 28°C or surge above 31°C—could sharply alter pricing before the 12:00 UTC settlement window. The Pacific High’s strength remains the primary dependency; a weakening system could introduce cooler air from the north, while intensification may push temperatures toward 32°C or higher. Recent news from the JMA confirms Japan’s record-breaking heatwave, with Tamba city hitting 41.2°C, underscoring the region’s current thermal volatility[8]. In this fragmented eleven-way market, value may sit on contrarian bets against 29°C if forecast convergence proves fragile, as price can move sharply with new JMA data releases[2]. The implied probability of 31.5% for 29°C represents a plurality, not a majority, leaving room for underdog outcomes if model consensus shifts.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.