Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22?

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Market context

Tokyo Haneda’s midday-to-afternoon high on 22 May is the event in play, and the market is currently pricing 0% for a YES outcome. On that read, YES is a clear underdog and the value question is whether the day can still warm enough to land in a higher bucket than the crowd expects. Late May in Tokyo is usually mild to warm rather than hot: climate normals put daily highs broadly in the low-to-mid 20s °C, with mornings cooler and afternoons only gradually building heat. AccuWeather’s May outlook for Tokyo points to highs mostly in the high teens to mid-20s °C, while WeatherSpark’s May climatology shows typical highs around 21–24°C and occasional excursions higher, but not often far above the low 30s.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: cloud cover, rainfall, and the strength of any pre-frontal warmth during the local afternoon window. A sunny, dry spell can push the day towards the upper end of the seasonal range, while showers or a marine layer keep the high suppressed. The key dependency is the exact Haneda station observation reported by Wunderground after the day finalises, so late changes in the synoptic setup matter more than anything earlier in the week. With consensus stuck at 0%, the favourite is the lower temperature ranges; the contrarian angle is that even a modest warm-up on a bright, dry afternoon could create value in a higher bracket if the official high lands above expectations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.