Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 23 May 2026, measured in Celsius. The crowd has assigned zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will occur or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date and location, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC.

Tokyo's late May climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with historical highs clustering between 25–30°C at Haneda. The 0% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty in forecasting a single day's peak temperature eighteen months ahead, rather than any genuine belief that extreme heat is impossible. Comparable May days at Haneda show considerable year-to-year variation; the station recorded 28.1°C on 23 May 2024 and 26.7°C on 23 May 2023. This variance pattern suggests multiple temperature bands carry legitimate probability weight, making the current flat market a potential value opportunity for traders willing to take positions on the most likely ranges.

Seasonal patterns favour moderate warmth rather than extremes. Late May precedes Tokyo's rainy season onset and sits before the sustained heat of June–August, when Haneda regularly exceeds 32°C. Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts as May 2026 approaches, though long-range models beyond two weeks typically carry limited predictive power. The absence of any scheduled weather events or anomalies on the horizon suggests normal seasonal conditions will likely prevail.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.