Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 25 May 2026. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will prevail. Late May in Tokyo typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with historical highs clustering between 25 and 32 degrees Celsius depending on weather patterns that month.

Tokyo's late-May climate reflects the transition toward early summer. Over the past decade, 25 May temperatures at Haneda have ranged from around 20°C on cooler years to 31–32°C during warmer spells. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than any conviction that extreme cold or heat is impossible. Comparable May dates show the 25–30°C band as modal, though outlier years—particularly those influenced by early heat waves or lingering cool fronts—can push readings above 32°C or below 20°C.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of early-season high-pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns that could drive temperatures upward. The timing of the East Asian monsoon transition and any subtropical high-pressure ridges will be decisive. Current models remain too distant to constrain outcomes meaningfully. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data for Haneda, making the choice of weather station critical—Haneda's urban heat island effect and coastal position can produce readings several degrees higher than inland Tokyo locations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.