Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

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Market context

Tokyo's daily high temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against historical weather data. The crowd has assigned this market zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient trading activity to establish meaningful odds.

Late May in Tokyo typically sees highs between 25–28°C, with occasional warm spells pushing toward 30°C. The Japan Meteorological Agency's 30-year climate normal for late May shows mean daily maxima around 26–27°C, though individual days regularly exceed this by 2–4 degrees. Historical outliers—such as the 31.1°C recorded on 26 May 2015—remain rare but plausible. The absence of any probability mass suggests traders may be awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or simply haven't engaged with this specific date yet.

The settlement window closes at midday on the day itself, leaving only morning forecasts available for final positioning. Japan's rainy season (tsuyu) typically begins in early June, so late May often sits in a transitional window where high-pressure systems from the south can drive temperatures upward, though monsoon moisture occasionally suppresses them. Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's extended outlook released in early May, which will clarify whether anomalous warmth or cooler-than-normal conditions are expected. Current atmospheric patterns and any official heat-wave advisories issued in the weeks prior would serve as concrete catalysts for repricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

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