Highest temperature in Toronto on May 24?

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Market context

Toronto's highest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Pearson International Airport, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient trading activity to establish consensus pricing.

May temperatures at Toronto Pearson typically range from 18–24°C, though the station's records show occasional peaks above 26°C during warm springs. The long-term May average high sits around 21°C. Historical precedent from comparable late-May dates indicates that outcomes clustering around 20–23°C dominate frequency distributions, whilst extremes above 27°C or below 16°C occur irregularly. The zero-probability reading across all bands is unusual and likely reflects sparse initial liquidity rather than genuine certainty about the day's weather outcome.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in late April and early May 2026, particularly any signals of early summer heat waves or persistent cool systems affecting eastern Canada. The North Atlantic Oscillation and soil moisture conditions across the Great Lakes region will influence whether May 24 experiences typical spring conditions or anomalous warmth. Atmospheric blocking patterns, if established weeks beforehand, could shift probabilities materially toward higher temperature ranges. Real-time forecasts become reliable only 7–10 days before the settlement date, meaning early trades operate on climatological baseline rather than deterministic prediction.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.