Highest temperature in Toronto on May 25?

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Market context

Toronto's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Pearson International Airport and resolved against historical weather data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will materialise on that specific date.

Late May in Toronto typically sits in the 20–24°C range for daily highs, with occasional warm spells pushing toward 27–28°C. Over the past decade, 25 May highs have ranged from 16°C to 28°C, with most years clustering around 22–25°C. The zero probability reading is unusual for a weather market this far out, as seasonal patterns and historical variance usually support modest odds across multiple temperature bands. This suggests traders may be waiting for closer-range forecasts or treating the market as insufficiently liquid to price fairly.

Weather forecasting beyond ten days carries substantial uncertainty, making May 2026 predictions premature by current meteorological standards. Traders should monitor spring 2026 climate patterns as the date approaches—particularly whether the North Atlantic Oscillation and jet stream positioning favour warm or cool air masses over eastern Canada. Environment Canada's seasonal outlooks, published quarterly, will provide the first meaningful signals about whether late May leans toward above or below normal temperatures. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, leaving only morning observations to influence final resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.