Highest temperature in Toronto on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, Toronto Pearson International Airport will record a daily high temperature, measured in Celsius. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground for that specific date and station.

Late May in Toronto typically sees highs between 20–25°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s. The 30-year climate normal for this date sits around 23°C. Extreme heat—temperatures above 30°C—occurs roughly once every five to ten years in late May across the Greater Toronto Area, whilst readings below 15°C are comparatively rare but not unprecedented. The zero probability reading suggests traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending activation closer to the resolution date.

The relevant catalyst is the long-range weather outlook issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada in May 2026, which typically becomes reliable two to three weeks before the target date. La Niña or El Niño conditions active in early 2026 could influence whether late May trends warmer or cooler than normal. Traders should monitor spring temperature patterns through April and early May as a proxy for atmospheric conditions likely to persist into late May. The market's current inactivity suggests value may emerge once seasonal forecasts solidify and traders can differentiate between plausible temperature bands.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Toronto on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.