Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 will be recorded at the Wellington International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. July is the coldest month in Wellington, where average daytime temperatures hover around 13°C and highs rarely exceed 24°C (76°F) [1][4]. Historical data shows July 13 typically sees highs near 12–14°C, with extremes above 20°C being exceptionally rare [2][9]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market believes no temperature range above a certain threshold will be hit, likely reflecting consensus that temperatures will stay within the typical winter band.

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from Wunderground and NIWA’s daily updates, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind direction from the south could suppress or elevate temperatures [3][5]. A key catalyst is the 10 AM UTC synoptic outlook, which often clarifies whether a high-pressure system will bring clearer skies and marginally warmer conditions. Recent weather reports from mid-July 2024 show highs of 12–14°C on similar dates, reinforcing the contrarian view that any range above 16°C would be an outlier [9]. Value may sit in betting against the 0% implied probability if a brief warm spell develops, though the historical underdog status of high July temps in Wellington remains strong.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.