Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport’s afternoon high on 24 July will likely settle in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, and the crowd’s 0% YES on the market’s current leading band looks extreme rather than decisive. The practical favourite is still the 13–14°C cluster, with 14°C shown as the market leader at 63% and 13°C next at 22%, implying the consensus is that a modest winter day is most likely rather than an outlying cold snap or any warm surge.[2]

Historically, July is one of Wellington’s wetter months, with climate data showing precipitation risk at its peak in July and July norms around frequent rain rather than sharp warmth.[1][3] That matters for the handicapper’s note: a high-pressure, dry break can lift daytime readings, but the base case is still a cool maritime profile. In that framing, the market’s favourite is the middle of the range, while the value angle for contrarians is the underdog tail above 15°C if the offshore flow strengthens enough to suppress the usual wind-chill effect and push the airport’s recorded high upwards.

The main catalysts are local weather-system timing, especially the passage or absence of fronts across the lower North Island and the strength of any Tasman Sea ridge. Short-range model updates matter most in the final 24–48 hours, because Wellington’s airport temperature can change quickly with wind direction and cloud cover, and the official settlement source is the day’s highest reading at Wellington Intl Airport Station on Wunderground.[2] On a market with a hard 0% YES quote at the top level, the consensus is already priced as a low-variance winter read; any value tends to sit in the thinner, higher-temperature bins if forecasts turn even slightly more benign.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.