Highest temperature in Wellington on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the Wellington International Airport Station will record its daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the "YES" outcome, reflecting a consensus that the temperature will not reach the specific threshold implied by the market’s binary framing. This stark pricing aligns with long-term July averages for Wellington, which hover between 12°C and 13°C, and recent forecasts suggesting a daily maximum near 13°C, consistent with NIWA’s outlook for near-average or below-average temperatures across the region[1].

Historically, Wellington’s July temperatures rarely exceed 14°C, with the coldest day recorded at 3.6°C in 2011 and the hottest day in January 2019 reaching 25°C, though summer extremes are uncommon in mid-winter[3]. The value spot for contrarian traders lies in the narrow margin between 13°C and 14°C, where a sudden shift in wind patterns or cloud cover could push the temperature just high enough to invalidate the 0% consensus. Traders should monitor NIWA’s daily weather bulletins and any unexpected heatwave announcements, as recent data shows Wellington’s heatwaves can rapidly alter previous records, though such events are typically confined to summer months[5]. No major weather schedules are imminent, but dependencies on real-time Wunderground data updates remain critical for resolution accuracy.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.