Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or a data-loading issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather database capturing the highest reading for that calendar day at the airport station.

Wellington's May climate sits firmly in autumn, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 12–16°C during this month. The city's exposed hilltop location and maritime influence produce volatile conditions; coastal stations frequently experience temperature swings of 5–8°C within a single day depending on wind direction and cloud cover. Comparable May days at Wellington Airport show that readings below 10°C occur roughly 20–30% of the time, whilst days exceeding 18°C remain uncommon but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be waiting for clearer seasonal forecasting data before committing capital.

The critical catalyst will be the Southern Hemisphere autumn weather pattern establishing itself in late April and early May 2026. High-pressure systems tracking across the Tasman Sea typically deliver warmer northwesterly flows, whilst low-pressure troughs bring cooler southerly changes. Meteorological forecasts from the New Zealand MetService become reliable roughly 10–14 days before the target date, providing the window when traders should expect meaningful probability shifts. Until then, the market's flatness reflects genuine seasonal ambiguity rather than confidence in any particular temperature band.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.