Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing zero probability that the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on 11 August 2026 will fall into the specified range, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish a baseline. Wuhan's August climate is characterised by sustained heat; historical data shows daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during mid-August, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% implied probability indicates the crowd expects the temperature to settle outside whatever range this market covers, though without visibility on the exact threshold boundaries, traders should verify whether the range itself represents an outlier scenario or a plausible outcome given seasonal norms.

August represents Wuhan's hottest month, with the city experiencing monsoon-influenced humidity and frequent high-pressure systems that drive temperatures upward. Recent summers have seen multiple days exceeding 35°C; the 2022 and 2023 summer seasons recorded extended periods above 40°C across central China, though Wuhan itself typically remains slightly cooler than inland areas. The resolution mechanism specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when temperature spikes occur during specific hours rather than across the full day.

Traders should monitor late-July weather patterns and any emerging forecasts for August 2026, as La Niña or El Niño conditions can influence East Asian summer temperatures. The current zero probability warrants scrutiny: if the specified range aligns with historical August norms for Wuhan, the pricing may reflect market thinness rather than genuine conviction about an anomalous outcome.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.