Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station will determine which range this market settles into. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or genuine uncertainty about which range will capture the day's peak reading.

Wuhan's August climate is characterised by intense summer heat. Historical data shows daily highs in mid-August typically range between 32–36°C, with occasional spikes above 37°C during heat waves. The city experienced a peak of 40.9°C in July 2013 and regularly sees consecutive days above 35°C during the summer monsoon season. August 2023 saw Wuhan record its hottest month on record, with multiple days exceeding 38°C. This historical pattern suggests the market's zero probability reading undervalues the likelihood of temperatures falling within the typical August range rather than extreme outliers.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts as mid-August 2026 approaches, particularly tracking the position of the western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system, which drives Wuhan's summer heat intensity. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength in early August will signal whether atmospheric conditions favour above-normal or near-normal temperatures for mid-month. Any significant weather pattern shifts—such as tropical cyclone activity bringing moisture from the south or cold air intrusions from the north—would materially alter temperature expectations. Resolution depends entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table for Wuhan Tianhe station, making data source consistency critical.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.