Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight low on 10 August is the settlement event, and the market is pricing **0% YES**, so the crowd is treating the outcome as effectively a non-event. That makes the favourite the broad “ordinary August heat” band, with the value question not about an extreme chill but whether the Observatory prints a lower-than-usual minimum within the day’s official record.

For framing, August normals at the Hong Kong Observatory imply a mean minimum around **26.5°C–27.0°C** and mean temperatures just above **31°C** for 9–10 August, which is consistent with a warm, humid baseline rather than a cold anomaly.[4] Recent comparable history also points to elevated lows: third-party history pages show late-August Hong Kong minimums commonly in the high 20s Celsius, with 2024–2026 August lows clustered around **27°C–29°C** on sampled days.[5][12] On that read, the consensus sits with a low in the upper-20s band, while a contrarian angle only has bite if cloud, rain, or a disturbed monsoon flow briefly suppresses the overnight minimum.

The main catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly readings through the night and the later publication of the finalized “Daily Extract”, because this market cannot resolve until the official “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” is posted.[1][9] Current near-term weather sources point to hot conditions with some cloud and isolated shower risk, which usually limits how low the minimum can go without a stronger rain or wind shift.[11][16] In handicapper terms, the favourite remains the higher-temperature bucket, with any value more likely to sit in a modest underdog case for a slightly cooler reading rather than a genuine cold-outlier surprise.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.