Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight low on 11 August is the event that matters, and the market is pricing a **0% YES** outcome, which makes the favourite effectively the warmest-end outcome in the listed range rather than a cool surprise. The resolution will come from the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min” in the Daily Extract, so the only number that counts is the official one-decimal Celsius reading once the data is published.[1][5]

Historically, August in Hong Kong is a high-heat, high-humidity month, with the climate normals for 11 August showing an average low around the mid-20s Celsius and little reason to expect a sharp break lower absent a rain-cooled air mass or a tropical disturbance.[1] Recent historical summaries also put 11 August lows in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius, reinforcing the idea that the consensus sits with the hotter outcomes and that the value, if any, is usually in the rare cooler tail rather than in chasing a dramatic drop.[2][3] In handicapper terms, the market’s 0% implied chance suggests the crowd is treating the downside as almost impossible; contrarian buyers would need a clear weather shock to justify that stance.

Traders should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly readings and warning updates through the day, because the final minimum can still be shaped by overnight cloud cover, rainfall, and any tropical weather influence.[5][9] The HKO’s regional and hourly forecast pages are the key dependency, while broader forecast services point to a hot, mostly cloudy August pattern with showers possible, which usually supports a relatively elevated minimum rather than a notably cool one.[9][10] If a trough, thunderstorm cluster, or tropical signal develops, that is where the underdog case gains credibility; absent that, consensus should stay clustered around the warmer bins.[5][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.