Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 17 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Min" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting consensus expectation that the low will fall outside the specified range—though the range itself is not detailed in available market documentation.

August in Hong Kong typically sees overnight lows between 25°C and 27°C, with the month ranking amongst the warmest and most humid of the year. Historical data from the Observatory shows August daily minimums rarely dip below 24°C except during occasional tropical storm passages. The 0% implied probability reflects either an extremely narrow or unusually high temperature threshold in the market's resolution bands, or consensus that August conditions will remain seasonally warm. Comparable August dates from recent years provide the most reliable baseline: the Observatory's climate records show consistent patterns across the past decade, with outliers driven primarily by typhoon activity or rare cool fronts.

Traders should monitor the Western Pacific typhoon forecast in early August 2026, as tropical systems represent the primary mechanism for depressing overnight temperatures during this period. The Hong Kong Observatory issues seasonal outlooks and track predictions that could shift expectations materially. Publication timing of the final Daily Extract data—typically within days of the settlement date—means resolution hinges entirely on Observatory methodology and data release schedules rather than real-time market-moving events.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.