Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s early-morning low on 9 August is the real-world trigger here, and the market is asking whether the Observatory will print a *sub-26.0°C* minimum, given the crowd is pricing **0% YES**. That makes **NO** the clear favourite, with consensus sitting around the view that August nights in Hong Kong are normally far too warm for a sharp downside surprise.

History argues for caution with any contrarian YES position, but not much for conviction. The Observatory’s August normals put the 9 August mean minimum at **26.9°C**, while broader August averages are around **27°C** for lows and **31°C** for highs, which is consistent with a sticky tropical baseline rather than a cool outlier.[2][13] Recent historical readings show Hong Kong has stayed in the high-20s overnight and only dipped into the mid-20s at the lowest in the latest reported stretch, with the lowest recent value at **76°F** (about **24.4°C**) on 31 July.[1][6] On that backdrop, the market looks like a strong favourite/underdog split: **NO** is the obvious favourite, while **YES** is the deep contrarian angle if cloud, rain, or an unusual air-mass shift suppresses the pre-dawn floor.

For traders, the main catalyst is the Observatory’s eventual publication of the “Daily Extract” for 9 August, since the market cannot resolve until the final **Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)** is posted.[10] Short-run guidance has pointed to very warm conditions: one forecast showed **cloudy**, **30–37°C** for 9 August, while another listed **96/84°F** with only a modest chance of rain, which is supportive of a high minimum rather than a cold one.[15][17] The contrarian value, if any, sits in the possibility that overnight showers or localised thunderstorms trim the minimum by a degree or two, but the consensus remains that the floor is still likely to land well above the settlement threshold.[9][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.