Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market prices the lowest temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 24 May 2026 at 2% implied probability for YES, suggesting the crowd expects a relatively mild minimum. Late May in Tokyo typically falls within the pre-rainy season window, with overnight lows averaging 16–18°C. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data from Haneda Airport Station, which provides consistent daily temperature records across decades.

Tokyo's May temperatures have shown modest volatility historically. Cold snaps in late May are uncommon but not unprecedented; the city experiences below-average minimums roughly once every five to seven years during this period, usually driven by northerly wind patterns or lingering cool air masses from the Pacific. The 2% probability suggests the market has priced in a scenario where temperatures remain within normal seasonal bounds, leaving potential value for traders who assess the risk of an unseasonable cold event as materially higher than the consensus.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 24 May, particularly any alerts regarding unusual pressure systems or cold fronts tracking toward the Kanto region. Spring weather patterns across East Asia can shift rapidly; a northeasterly flow or upper-level trough could push minimums significantly below the seasonal mean. Historical precedent shows that when such systems do materialise, they often arrive with short lead times, making real-time forecast updates critical to reassessing the probability closer to the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.