Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, a date falling squarely in Guangzhou’s hottest season. Historically, July daily highs in Guangzhou cluster around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 30°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F), though extreme heatwaves can push temperatures to 39°C (102°F)[1][2]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests the consensus believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, likely assuming a standard July high rather than an outlier. Yet, given China’s record-breaking July heat in recent years and the potential for contrarian value in betting on extreme anomalies, the 0% price may overlook the tail risk of a 39°C spike, making this an underdog play for those spotting value in contrarian angles[4][5].

Traders should monitor immediate weather catalysts, particularly the forecast for thunderstorms with heavy rain versus clear skies, as these directly dictate peak temperatures. Climate data indicates that 10 July typically features few clouds and a high of 34°C (93.2°F), but heavy rain can suppress peaks significantly[9]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, underscoring the volatility of seasonal temperatures and the need to watch for sudden shifts in atmospheric conditions[5]. With the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 10 July, the key dependency is the Wunderground report for the Baiyun station, which will capture the absolute daily high; any unforecasted heat surge could invalidate the 0% consensus and create a favourite-underdog reversal for contrarian traders[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.