Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the daily maximum temperature on 12 June 2026, with settlement tied to the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either genuine uncertainty about which range will occur or insufficient trader participation to establish meaningful odds.

Hong Kong's June temperatures sit firmly in the early summer window, when the territory transitions toward the Southwest Monsoon season. Historical data shows daily maxima in mid-June typically range between 28°C and 33°C, with occasional excursions above 34°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd reading across all bands is unusual and likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than a genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Comparable June dates from the Observatory's archives provide the baseline: most years cluster in the 30–32°C band, though outlier years have pushed toward 35°C or above during particularly intense high-pressure systems.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological agencies as June approaches, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual pressure patterns. The Southwest Monsoon's onset timing and intensity will be the primary driver—an earlier or stronger monsoon arrival typically suppresses peak temperatures, whilst delayed onset leaves the territory exposed to continental heat. Current atmospheric patterns and any El Niño or La Niña signals in the Pacific will shape June's thermal profile. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 12 June, giving traders only until the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract to position accordingly.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

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FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.